Request for Prognostications

  1. How close will the presidential election be? Who will win?
  2. How long will it take to certify election results?
  3. Will either candidate concede without forcing a Supreme Court showdown?
  4. How close will the race between Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy be? Who will win?
  5. Will Proposition 65 win? How much support will 65A siphon off?
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6 Responses to Request for Prognostications

  1. Nicholas Djedjos says:

    The following response analyzes the first two questions.
    Though polls like RealClear Politic and FiveThirtyEight predict Biden will win by eight to nine points nationally, I believe the presidential election will go down to the wire. Already, pollsters have taken a hit to their reputation due to their 2016 presidential election mishap, where they projected Hillary Clinton winning comfortably. In response, RealClear Politic then claimed that the election fell within the margin of error, and it was the pundits that pushed the Hillary Clinton campaign agenda. Regardless, both parties are incentivizing their supporters to vote, whether it is in person or by mail. Leading Democrats are pleading with their party to not be “complacent” while leading Republicans are calling on the “silent majority” to make a difference at the polls. With the aforementioned information in mind, though the race will be close, I believe that Biden will win the presidential election due to the Democrats’ massive voting by mail turnout.
    As for certifying election results, it depends on the state. Certain states allow mail in votes to be counted before Election day, while others like Washington and Pennsylvania only start on Election day. The results also depend on the quantity of in person votes compared to mail in votes, as the latter may take several days to process. With this information in mind, I believe it is safe to say that the election will not be determined on Election night due to the already massive amounts of mail in votes.

  2. Dylan Griffith says:

    As for the presidential election, I believe that it will be determined by a thin margin. Thus, it is hard to say who will win. Next, with mail-in-votes being accepted, the election results could take up to a week to certify. With all this in mind, one thing is for certain. Donald Trump will not go down without a fight. If Trump is not victorious, he will without a doubt take it to the supreme court, and if he loses there, there is no telling what lengths he will go to to ensure a win.

  3. Mason Pettit says:

    I think the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be a landslide for Biden in the popular vote, but it will be closer electorally. Donald Trump has done a better job energizing liberal voters than any candidate in recent history, but this will likely mean that Biden wins solidly blue states by a larger margin without necessarily winning as many voters in swing states. In the end, I think Biden will win, but it will be close. With historic early and mail in voting numbers, the election results will certainly take longer to verify this year than the past several elections, and it could take weeks or even months to certify the election if it goes to the supreme court. I don’t think Trump will concede without bringing the results of the election to the supreme court, but if Biden loses there’s not much point to bringing the results to a supreme court that will almost certainly side with Trump considering he appointed a third of the court. I think Cindy Hyde-Smith will blow out Mike Espy since this is a presidential election year, and many people that wouldn’t normally vote will show up to vote Republican all the way down the ticket.

  4. Balee Wilson says:

    I think that the election between Biden and Trump will be very close and hard to predict who will come out on top. Before the coronavirus began running rampant throughout the United States, I would have agreed that Trump would win by a landslide. Since the coronavirus hit the U.S., Trump has done a great job of putting doubts in American’s minds, even hard-core Republicans, as to whether he is fit for the job or not. As for certifying the results, I think that it will be done as quickly and efficiently as possible, but I do believe that it will take longer than normal due to mail-in votes. It could take several days to officially certify the election. I do not think that Trump will concede the presidency without taking it to the Supreme Court. This could possibly delay the official results for the election even longer. Ultimately, I do not think that we will know for sure who the new president is on November 3. Also, I think that Cindy Hyde-Smith will win the Mississippi senate seat by a landslide. I agree that with this being the year for the presidential election, many voters who do not vote frequently will be at the polls. With Mississippi being a mostly Republican-voting state, I do not think that Mike Espy has a good chance of being elected.

  5. Luke Bowles says:

    In response to questions 4 and 5: Honestly, I think Mike Espy will win. It might just be blind optimism, but I believe the election will be very, very close. There are a lot of young first-time voters, and I think many believe Cindy Hyde-Smith wants to keep Mississippi stuck where we are. In regards to Initiative 65, I think similarly to the Senate election. I believe it will pass, and hopefully the alternative measure doesn’t siphon off too much. I think this is the year that the tide might finally change in Mississippi.

  6. Luke Bowles says:

    In response to questions 1-3: I don’t think that the election will be very close. Many of the swing states have been hit hard by COVID-19, so I think Biden will win by around 2-4 points. It will definitely take a while to verify with so many mail-in votes and absentee ballots. Plus, who knows with Florida. God-forsaken Florida. I believe both candidates will be willing to concede if the election isn’t close. If it’s close, there is a real possibility Trump might not.

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