Request for Prognostications

  1. How close will the presidential election be? Who will win?
  2. How long will it take to certify election results?
  3. Will either candidate concede without forcing a Supreme Court showdown?
  4. How close will the race between Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy be? Who will win?
  5. Will Proposition 65 win? How much support will 65A siphon off?
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13 Responses to Request for Prognostications

  1. Nicholas Djedjos says:

    The following response analyzes the first two questions.
    Though polls like RealClear Politic and FiveThirtyEight predict Biden will win by eight to nine points nationally, I believe the presidential election will go down to the wire. Already, pollsters have taken a hit to their reputation due to their 2016 presidential election mishap, where they projected Hillary Clinton winning comfortably. In response, RealClear Politic then claimed that the election fell within the margin of error, and it was the pundits that pushed the Hillary Clinton campaign agenda. Regardless, both parties are incentivizing their supporters to vote, whether it is in person or by mail. Leading Democrats are pleading with their party to not be “complacent” while leading Republicans are calling on the “silent majority” to make a difference at the polls. With the aforementioned information in mind, though the race will be close, I believe that Biden will win the presidential election due to the Democrats’ massive voting by mail turnout.
    As for certifying election results, it depends on the state. Certain states allow mail in votes to be counted before Election day, while others like Washington and Pennsylvania only start on Election day. The results also depend on the quantity of in person votes compared to mail in votes, as the latter may take several days to process. With this information in mind, I believe it is safe to say that the election will not be determined on Election night due to the already massive amounts of mail in votes.

  2. Dylan Griffith says:

    As for the presidential election, I believe that it will be determined by a thin margin. Thus, it is hard to say who will win. Next, with mail-in-votes being accepted, the election results could take up to a week to certify. With all this in mind, one thing is for certain. Donald Trump will not go down without a fight. If Trump is not victorious, he will without a doubt take it to the supreme court, and if he loses there, there is no telling what lengths he will go to to ensure a win.

  3. Mason Pettit says:

    I think the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be a landslide for Biden in the popular vote, but it will be closer electorally. Donald Trump has done a better job energizing liberal voters than any candidate in recent history, but this will likely mean that Biden wins solidly blue states by a larger margin without necessarily winning as many voters in swing states. In the end, I think Biden will win, but it will be close. With historic early and mail in voting numbers, the election results will certainly take longer to verify this year than the past several elections, and it could take weeks or even months to certify the election if it goes to the supreme court. I don’t think Trump will concede without bringing the results of the election to the supreme court, but if Biden loses there’s not much point to bringing the results to a supreme court that will almost certainly side with Trump considering he appointed a third of the court. I think Cindy Hyde-Smith will blow out Mike Espy since this is a presidential election year, and many people that wouldn’t normally vote will show up to vote Republican all the way down the ticket.

  4. Balee Wilson says:

    I think that the election between Biden and Trump will be very close and hard to predict who will come out on top. Before the coronavirus began running rampant throughout the United States, I would have agreed that Trump would win by a landslide. Since the coronavirus hit the U.S., Trump has done a great job of putting doubts in American’s minds, even hard-core Republicans, as to whether he is fit for the job or not. As for certifying the results, I think that it will be done as quickly and efficiently as possible, but I do believe that it will take longer than normal due to mail-in votes. It could take several days to officially certify the election. I do not think that Trump will concede the presidency without taking it to the Supreme Court. This could possibly delay the official results for the election even longer. Ultimately, I do not think that we will know for sure who the new president is on November 3. Also, I think that Cindy Hyde-Smith will win the Mississippi senate seat by a landslide. I agree that with this being the year for the presidential election, many voters who do not vote frequently will be at the polls. With Mississippi being a mostly Republican-voting state, I do not think that Mike Espy has a good chance of being elected.

  5. Luke Bowles says:

    In response to questions 4 and 5: Honestly, I think Mike Espy will win. It might just be blind optimism, but I believe the election will be very, very close. There are a lot of young first-time voters, and I think many believe Cindy Hyde-Smith wants to keep Mississippi stuck where we are. In regards to Initiative 65, I think similarly to the Senate election. I believe it will pass, and hopefully the alternative measure doesn’t siphon off too much. I think this is the year that the tide might finally change in Mississippi.

  6. Luke Bowles says:

    In response to questions 1-3: I don’t think that the election will be very close. Many of the swing states have been hit hard by COVID-19, so I think Biden will win by around 2-4 points. It will definitely take a while to verify with so many mail-in votes and absentee ballots. Plus, who knows with Florida. God-forsaken Florida. I believe both candidates will be willing to concede if the election isn’t close. If it’s close, there is a real possibility Trump might not.

  7. Piper Britt says:

    Okay, so I am kind of late to this. And by kind of late, I am very late. And since I am so late, a lot of these questions have already been answered; so I am just going to give my opinion. One I am very glad that this election only had a smidge of Trump acting like a toddler. Because I know a lot of people were worried about how he was going to act if he lost. I am also very happy that 65 passed and I am ready to see what happens with it.

  8. Vineel Vanga says:

    The election has already passed and the results have been announced, but in response to the series of questions above, I will provide my viewpoint of events back then. Honestly I don’t keep up with politics that much, so during the whole actual election I wasn’t really sure how close the election would be. I knew that since Trump was running for President again that he would be an incumbent and that statistics show that incumbents have a high percentage of being reelected again for that same position. So mainly, I thought that Trump would be in a lead against Biden because of that, but by how much of a lead I cannot tell as there are other variables that could influence the polls.
    It’s going to take some time for the election results to actually be finalized because there are going to be appeals to the supreme court to recount the votes. I am not aware of the whole situation of shutting down the Supreme court, but if that is an action to help impede on the other opponent or increase their own standing then they are bound to do that.
    We are a Republican state. That’s basically it because we are so polarized that we are going to vote for the Republican party over the Democratic party. My odds are that Cindy-Hide Smith is going to win (in which she did).
    My knowledge on prop 95 isn’t the greatest as I never heard it before reading the question. But if Trump has the power to pass or accept that than I believe it won’t pass because of his views on science.

  9. Zaria Cooper says:

    I feel that after the election, the results definitely surprised me. I didn’t think the race would be so close, but it took way longer than I would’ve expected. Especially, when it came to states such as Georgia and Pennsylvania, these 2 states were game-changers for the Biden stans. I am relieved that Joe Biden won and the chance to have Kamala as Vice President was history in the making. As far as, Epsy and Hyde-Smith, I did think Epsy would lose, which he did.

  10. Carolena Graham says:

    I know I’m late, but I’m not going to lie, the election was a big surprise. I was very unsure about who would win. The United States has had a Republican president for the longest. I knew it would be close. I for sure thought Biden would win at least the popular vote. Biden winning the electoral vote was a shock to me. On the other hand, Mississippi didn’t prove me wrong. We will forever be red.

  11. Chloe Sharp says:

    Ok, I am super late to this party, but I’ll do my best to provide some insight post-election. First of all, I expected Biden to win, but there were 2 big surprises for me. 1st, I thought for sure that Biden would win Texas, and 2nd, I didn’t even consider the possibility that Georgia might flip blue. I was shocked in both cases, but especially about Georgia, I don’t think anyone was expecting that. I also honestly believed that Mike-Espy might win Mississippi, especially because of how much traction 65 got, but I was unfortunately wrong. Presently, we know that Donald Trump has lost. However, what is really still up in the air after a month after the election is if he will take the case to the supreme court. There are now 17 states, Mississippi included, who are petitioning the Supreme Court to overturn the election. I still have faith that even if the petition makes it that far, the Supreme Court wouldn’t tolerate this almost treasonous act. However, I still worry about the fact that it is a possibility, and that could very well be the tipping point for the already divided United States.

  12. Vineeth Vanga says:

    I’m late to the party, but I’m going to say that I heavily expected Biden to win because COVID-19 straight up destroyed Trump’s connection with his constituents and turned a lot of them over to Biden’s side even if they weren’t entirely comfortable with voting Biden. I also expected that it would take a pretty long time for them to certify the election results because I knew for a fact that Donald Trump would not buy into the fact that he lost and would prolong the election further which is exactly what happened and we wound up having an election week instead of an election day. I didn’t even think that a supreme court shutdown was going to be on the table at all. I was very shocked that Mike Espy lost the race because I had seen so much campaigning on his part and not so much from Cindy Hyde Smith. When she won I only attributed it to the fact that in Mississippi party line voting is still a heavy reality. I was a bit afraid of how prop 65 would go down because there’s such a controversy over the mix between politics and science.

  13. Lauren Hood says:

    The election has already passed, but I predicted that Biden would win and it would be very close. I think it will take past January to certify election results. I do not see Trump giving up any time soon and believe that there are a few suspicious things going on although I do not believe it will change the results. I do not see any candidate conceding. Cindy Hyde-Smith one and I predicted that she would. I thought she would win by a bigger margin. I am shocked that Proposition 65 passed. I am not shocked at the amount of support that 65A got.

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